{"id":62434,"date":"2019-09-06T13:14:19","date_gmt":"2019-09-06T18:14:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/canal7slp.tv\/2019\/?p=62434"},"modified":"2019-09-06T13:14:19","modified_gmt":"2019-09-06T18:14:19","slug":"piden-disciplina-fiscal-pero-tambien-crecer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canal7slp.tv\/2019\/piden-disciplina-fiscal-pero-tambien-crecer\/","title":{"rendered":"Piden disciplina fiscal, pero tambi\u00e9n crecer"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\">Analistas esperan un paquete econ\u00f3mico para 2020 realista; los pron\u00f3sticos m\u00e1s recientes se han ajustado a la baja<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">M\u00e9xico.- El Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2020 deber\u00e1 ser cre\u00edble ante los mercados, por lo que la Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda y Cr\u00e9dito P\u00fablico (SHCP) tendr\u00e1 que presentar un documento que refleje disciplina fiscal y contemple supuestos macroecon\u00f3micos enfocados a impulsar el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico, se\u00f1alaron analistas entrevistados por El Financiero.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Coincidieron que Hacienda debe de plantear un super\u00e1vit primario positivo, no obstante, hay diferencias en cuanto al nivel, por un lado, Citibanamex y Finamex Casa de Bolsa consideran que se deber\u00eda ajustar el balance primario a un rango de 0.5-0.9 por ciento del PIB desde uno de 1.3 por ciento estimado en Pre-Criterios 2020, mientras que Barclays ve un super\u00e1vit alineado al 1.3 por ciento.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Sergio Luna, director de Estudios Econ\u00f3micos de Citibanamex, asegur\u00f3 que Hacienda ha tenido una actitud responsable en el manejo de las finanzas p\u00fablicas pero debe tomar en cuenta que buscar un super\u00e1vit de 1.3 por ciento del PIB dado el crecimiento m\u00e1s bajo, podr\u00eda resultar contraproducente.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u201cSi es demasiado ambiciosa la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal habr\u00e1 impactos en t\u00e9rminos de actividad. Se debe buscar una posici\u00f3n fiscal que no nos meta en problemas pero que tambi\u00e9n no sea tan oneroso desde un punto de vista de impacto sobre la econom\u00eda, entonces, super\u00e1vit primario s\u00ed pero cre\u00edble ante mercados y no tan ambicioso como estaba\u201d, se\u00f1al\u00f3<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Felix Boni, director de An\u00e1lisis de HR Ratings, consider\u00f3 que \u201cel gobierno debe plantear un balance primario y revisar sus limitaciones en cuanto al d\u00e9ficit fiscal. Ser\u00e1 interesante saber qu\u00e9 es lo que est\u00e1n suponiendo o hasta qu\u00e9 punto van a dedicar elementos de criterios para delinear sus ideas de como promover el crecimiento y la disciplina junto con el bienestar de la poblaci\u00f3n\u201d.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Ariane Ortiz-Boll\u00edn, analista soberana de Moody\u2019s, dijo que \u201cser\u00e1n muy importantes los supuestos macroecon\u00f3micos que ponga el gobierno en el documento, esperando que sean realistas y cercanos a los supuestos que la agencia calificadora tiene\u201d.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Para 2020, Citibanamex y Finamex ven una plataforma petrolera entre 1.560 y 1.600 millones de barriles diarios, que es una baja respecto de los 1.916 millones de barriles diarios previstos en Precriterios, mientras que en precio estiman que se sit\u00fae entre 51 y 55 d\u00f3lares por barril.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">V\u00edctor G\u00f3mez, subdirector de an\u00e1lisis econ\u00f3mico de Finamex Casa de Bolsa, subray\u00f3 que \u201ca pesar de que se han hecho esfuerzos importantes de finanzas p\u00fablicas para reducir la dependencia de ingresos petroleros, la verdad es que tanto precio de petr\u00f3leo y producci\u00f3n son variables clave en el Paquete Econ\u00f3mico\u201d.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Marco Oviedo, economista en jefe para Am\u00e9rica Latina en Barclays, mencion\u00f3 que los supuestos macroecon\u00f3micos que se presentar\u00e1n en los Criterios Generales de Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f3mica de 2020 mostrar\u00e1n responsabilidad fiscal pero un deterioro en las expectativas de crecimiento econ\u00f3mico, esto debido a la debilidad de la actividad econ\u00f3mica en 2019.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">La debilidad econ\u00f3mica y la menor producci\u00f3n de crudo en el pa\u00eds mermar\u00e1n los ingresos del sector p\u00fablico m\u00e1s de lo previsto para este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u201cSe esperar\u00eda un recorte aproximado de entre 320 y 350 mil millones de pesos. Esto se debe a que este a\u00f1o el gobierno tiene menos recursos por recaudaci\u00f3n y el tener menos consumo y un primer semestre donde la econom\u00eda no creci\u00f3, sin duda ha sido un impacto negativo para las finanzas del gobierno\u201d, estim\u00f3 Jorge S\u00e1nchez, director de Investigaci\u00f3n Aplicada de la Fundaci\u00f3n de Estudios Financieros (Fundef). Indic\u00f3 que el principal riesgo para las finanzas p\u00fablicas se llama Pemex, ya que si pierde el grado de inversi\u00f3n la situaci\u00f3n en el pa\u00eds se puede poner delicada.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Daniela Balbino, asesora econ\u00f3mica de la C\u00e1mara de Diputados, coincidi\u00f3 en que el principal riesgo para las finanzas p\u00fablicas es la menor producci\u00f3n petrolera de Pemex y los riesgos que conllevar\u00eda una reducci\u00f3n en su calificaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analistas esperan un paquete econ\u00f3mico para 2020 realista; los pron\u00f3sticos m\u00e1s recientes se han ajustado a la baja M\u00e9xico.- El Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2020 deber\u00e1 ser cre\u00edble ante los mercados, por lo que la Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda y Cr\u00e9dito P\u00fablico (SHCP) tendr\u00e1 que presentar un documento que refleje disciplina fiscal y contemple supuestos macroecon\u00f3micos enfocados a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62436,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finanzas"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Piden disciplina fiscal, pero tambi\u00e9n crecer - Canal 7 SLP - 2019<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/canal7slp.tv\/2019\/piden-disciplina-fiscal-pero-tambien-crecer\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Piden disciplina fiscal, pero tambi\u00e9n crecer - Canal 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